The CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey is highly regarded in political and academic circles. The survey predicted a comfortable NDA victory in 2019. This time, too, the survey findings are good news to the Narendra Modi government.
As per the survey, here are the estimated vote-shares that different parties and alliances are going to poll:
Congress: 21%
Congress allies: 13%
BJP: 40%
BJP allies: 6%
BSP: 3%
Left parties: 2%
Others: 15%
As per the survey, BJP's vote share is going to see some changes compared to last time. The figures in parenthesis pertain to 2019:
1. Northern and Western parts of India: 47% (48%)
2. Southern India: 25% (18%)
3. Eastern and North-Eastern India: 42% (34%)
Commerning on the findings, a PhD scholar wrote, "The survey projects to essentially 2019-style seat numbers (maybe, a little lower) for the BJP: if there's significant social desirability bias, then we have a very close election. If there is a classic shift towards the favorite in the last weeks of campaigning, 400+ is in play."
In its analysis of the survey, The Hindu wrote that NDA is not as comfortable as it was in 2019. "While a significant share of people continues to be satisfied with the NDA government, the numbers have come down compared to the 2019 pre-poll survey. Before the 2019 polls, 65% said they were somewhat or fully satisfied with the government. In 2024, the share of such respondents has come down to 57%. The share of those somewhat or fully dissatisfied has increased from 30% to 39%," the newspaper wrote.
